作者：I-Hsiang Tsai RA www.gouwuhawaii.com
新的一年已經來到，我們在此向您致以最美好的祝愿。许多客户想知道夏威夷房地产2020年的前景是什么，所以在这里我们将为您提供一些见解和数据，以帮助您做出更明智的投资决策。這個文章是在美國被Covid19 影響升級之前。 目前美國許多州已經受到巨大影響，許多州希望居民待在家裡甚至不讓外國人進入。 我們希望這個情況可以儘早恢復，不然美國經濟會受到影響進而影響大家購買能力。 不過如果客戶是有經濟實力的，今年是不錯的時間尋找您喜愛的房產因為除了價格會比較好以外，貸款利息也是相當不錯的。
投资者最常问的问题
1. 现在是买2020的好时机吗？
2. 这么多豪华公寓，买家从哪里来？
3. 2020年是出售的好时机吗？
现在夏威夷的租赁市场怎么样？
The most common questions from investors
1. Is it a good time to buy 2020?
2. With so many luxury condos coming up, where are those buyers coming from?
3. Is it a good time to sell in 2020?
4. Hows the rental market in Hawaii right now?
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Global Issues
1. 澳大利亚房地产
过去，有些投资者选择在澳大利亚投资，但现在随着货币贬值和持续燃烧的森林大火，加上對外國人買房的限制條款，我想许多人会遠離澳大利亚房地產投資，甚至试图出售已經購買的投资- 壯士斷臂-留下資本投資其他地方。 这些投资者将尝试寻找新的投资场所，而夏威夷可能是他们的投資选择之一。
2. Hong Kong
香港的暴动摧毁了其经济和旅游业。香港房地产的价格太高，以至于许多当地人都无法購買或是沒有足夠信心購買香港房地產，因此我们看到越来越多的投资者希望在其他地区进行购买。
3. China
中国严格的法规以及中国房地产的放缓，投资者仍在寻找不同的投资机会。許多中國投資人希望可以投資外國房地產是因為想分散投資。 目前中國投資人仍然無法輕易地将资金转移到美国购买。 另外中美 的貿易戰持續， 影響中國人來美- 2020年東航將在6月停止上海夏威夷直飛。 不過還好夏威夷的房地产从未完全依赖於中国买家。中國買家一直不是夏威夷最大的外國投資者。 不過越来越多的中国投资者将目光投向夏威夷，而不是西雅图和旧金山。除了低房地产税率之外，许多人更喜欢夏威夷房价的穩定。投資人喜歡夏威夷新鲜空气，氣候，以及友善的居民。
The Fear of Recession 經濟衰退的恐懼
衰退的可能性： 100多名房產专家和经济学家覺得下一次經濟衰退将不会是房地产市场引起的。 房价下跌的幅度不會太大。更何況夏威夷房產供应的紧张，有限的土地，和房產的高需求將會缓冲房地产市场的變動。 2007年和2008年，瓦胡岛房地產市场的穩定证明了这一点，在上一次美国房地產泡沫破灭之后，受影响最大的州如下：
让我们看一下过去房屋泡沫破灭后负资产率最高的10个州。
After the previous USA Housing Bubbles, most affected states are as followed
Let’s take a look at 10 states with the highest negative equity rates after the housing bubble in the past.
10. Maryland
Negative equity shares: 16.2 percent
9. Rhode Island
Negative equity shares: 17 percent
8. Georgia
Negative equity shares: 18 percent
7. Michigan
Negative equity shares: 18.5 percent
6. Ohio
Negative equity shares: 19.2 percent
5. Illinois
Negative equity shares: 19.7 percent
4. Arizona
Negative equity shares: 20.1 percent
3. Mississippi
Negative equity shares: 20.1 percent
2. Florida
Negative equity shares: 26.9 percent
1. Nevada
Negative equity shares: 29.4 percent
Hawaii Economy
Hawaii economy: despite the trade war which affects the number of Chinese visitors to Hawaii (dropped about 36% in 2019), Hawaii's GDP is predicted to grow 2.6% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020 and 2021. With rising wages and a good employment rate, residents will be able to support higher apartment rental prices.
夏威夷经济：尽管贸易战影响到夏威夷的中国游客人数（2019年下降约36％），但夏威夷的GDP预计将在2019年增长2.6％，在2020年和2021年增长1.4％。良好的就业率，居民将能够支付较高的租金价格。夏威夷目前也沒有租金控制的限制- 有投資人注意到有一些州開始限制租金額度-而夏威夷依然還是一個沒有限制租金的市場。
Here is the forecast into 2020 and 2021 according to Hawaii economic report by Hawaii.gov.
The Hawaiian economy is still good and wages have risen over 4%. Solid demand for rental units and new constructions. The rental market is still good in Hawaii as well as in the past.
根据Hawaii.gov的夏威夷经济报告，这是对2020年和2021年的预测。夏威夷经济依然良好，工资上涨了4％以上。租赁单元和新建筑的需求稳定。夏威夷租赁市场仍然不错
Honolulu Oahu Real Estate Forecast
檀香山瓦胡岛（Honolulu Oahu）房地产预测2019年12月的最新数据如下。正如您所看到的那样，公寓和独户住宅的中間价格仍然强劲。
The most recent December 2019 stat has come in as followed
We are finishing up 2019 with a strong number and as you can see the median price for both condo and single-family home remain strong.
图表是基于Zillow的预测
From the graph, one can see the trend line of home prices in Hawaii in 2020. The housing market is now geared more toward to buyer's market as seen in 2019 but we will still see a slight rise in the next 12 months. This graph is based on Zillow's prediction.
Hawaii housing demand is still higher than its supply- in the last few years, billions of real estate investment dollars have flowed into the state.
Foreign investors do play a major part in the Hawaii real estate market. We have investors from all over the world to compete with limited supplies of real estate. In 2019, I have heard many worries that the price of real estate would decline too much so they withheld their investment a bit to observe the situation. Now Let's see how the median price for single-family home and condo in Hawaii for the time frame of 5 yrs.
请参阅本文以下部分的图表，了解夏威夷5年来的价格走势。
(above) 5年以上独栋房屋销售价格中位数
(above) 5年以上公寓單位销售价格中位数
由以上的圖我們可以了解夏威夷房地產的價格還是非常穩定。韓國的一位富豪收購了4塊土地在 KAPIOLANI Blvd 上，由此可見其實外資還是非常看好夏威夷前景。
The median days on the market for both single-family home and condo is shown as followed
房產在市場的天數 - 2019年並沒有大幅增加。
Hawaii Housing Demand 夏威夷住房需求
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夏威夷政府预测，到2025年，人口将增长19％。在2015-2025年期间，檀香山房地產需求量为25847套單位。瓦胡岛西邊區域，Kapolei和Ewa，仍在开发新房，房地產需求仍然很高。夏威夷不断有新士兵與其家属抵達 ，其中许多人选择在夏威夷购买房產。这也使当地居民的新房供应减少。
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您可能想知道夏威夷的豪宅市场如何。Azure，Sky Ala Moana，Central Ala Moana，Illilani和Victoria Place等新项目在2019年已經开始销售。Azure和Sky Ala Moana的销售情况非常好，已经在建设中。Central Ala Moana銷售已經結束，Victoria Place是Kakaako最新的销售项目。这也是一线海景建筑。无限制的單位销售已经开始，并且销售不錯。自住单位也即将开始销售。这些成功的销售结果表明，夏威夷房地产市场并未像许多人预期的那样疲软。这个数字说明了一切。 而2019年 雖然許多投資人抱著觀望的態度，夏威夷房地產依然還是有不錯的數據。 300萬以上的豪宅的確在銷售上緩慢了下來不過夏威夷的房產需求仍然是高。
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Hawaii's government predicts a 19% growth in population by 2025. Demand for Honolulu is 25847 units during the 2015-2025 period
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The west side of Oahu, Kapolei and Ewa, is still developing new houses and the demand is still high. We have a constant influx of new soldiers and their families into the state and many of them chose to purchase homes in Hawaii. This also makes supplies of new home availability lowered for local residents.
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You may wonder how about those luxury homes market in Hawaii. We see the new projects such as Azure, Sky Ala Moana, Central Ala Moana, Ililani, and Victoria Place starting sales in 2019. Azure and Sky Ala Moana are selling very well and are already in the middle of construction. Central Ala Moana was sold out so is Ililani. Victoria Place is the newest sale project taking place for Kakaako. This is also the first-line ocean view building. The unrestricted sale has already begun and sold very well. The owner-occupied units are about to start its sale soon. The result of those successful sales shows that the housing market is not weakened as much as many have anticipated. The number speaks for itself.
- Central Ala Moana Sold Out
2019年利率下降帮助了美国2019房地产市場. 我们不认为在2020年利率会进一步下降太多，也不一定會上漲太多。 如果投资者需要获得贷款才可以購買房地產，那麼 2020年的低利率可以幫助到您。
